Monthly report for April 2024
The YTD return in P+ accounted for 2.02 percent as of 30 April which is a 1.5 percentage point drop compared to the end of March.
The month’s portfolio returns accounted for -2.4 percent for shares, 1.8 percent for special investments, -0.2 percent for credit bonds, -1.3 percent for bonds and -0.5 for real assets.
After a Q1, which delivered attractive returns, April was a more challenging month for the market development. Both risky assets and bonds generated negative returns. The negative development was primarily driven by US economic indicators which again pointed to the fact that the inflation rate is still somewhat higher the the central bank's target, as well as the growth being weaker than expected in the first 3 months. However, the labour market remained strong with a falling unemployment rate and increasing job growth. The key indicators triggered the market to postpone expectations about US interest rate cuts, while the 10-year US interest rate increased by 48 basis points to 4.68 percent during April - the highest level since the beginning of November. This interest rate development had a negative impact on risky asssets as the motivating force to a great extent was fear of a too high level of inflation more than a strong economic activity.
Contrary to the US, the EU economic indicators suprised positively. The economic activity in the EU grew by 0.3 percent during Q1, and Europe thereby ended a period of 5 quarters in a row with a growth of broadly 0. It was still the service sector that impacted the economy positively, while the development in manufactoring was more modest. The EU core inflation ended at 2.7 percent which was somewhat higher than expected. However, this did not change the fact that the market expects a first interest rate cut in June which the ECB has made clear is highly likely.
During April we saw a further escalation of the Middle East conflict with a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. This escalation contributed to the negative development for risky assets in April, but for now it seems that the risk of a further escalation is contained. However, the market will folllow geopolitical tensions closely.
In the near future, the market will keep a close eye on the development in the US inflation rate and the final stretch of the inflation fight. The market expects interest rate cuts from both the European and the US central bank later this year, but an increase in inflation in the US has postponed the expected interest rate cuts for some time now. The market's reaction in April indicates that a continued positive development in risky assets may require confirmation that the current interest rate level is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to the central banks' target.